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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 14 at the 91

Tennessee Titans 17 – Indianapolis Colts 27

What Actually Happened

(2:34) (Shotgun) 7-B.Gabbert pass incomplete deep left to 13-T.Taylor (53-D.Leonard).

The Three Options

GO -3.09 EP
What Happened
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.72 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 91, worth -4.99 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

PUNT -1.86 EP
Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 48, worth -1.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.23 EP