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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 10 at the 52

Indianapolis Colts 24 – Tennessee Titans 17

What Actually Happened

(13:36) (Punt formation) 2-R.Sanchez punts 49 yards to TEN 3, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.79 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.98 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 52, worth -2.79 EP
KICK -1.63 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 15, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model