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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 3 at the 61

Tennessee Titans 10 – Indianapolis Colts 24

What Actually Happened

(5:41) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 54 yards to IND 7, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 80-C.Rogers to IND 7 for no gain (29-D.Cruikshank).

The Three Options

GO -0.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.25 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 61, worth -3.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 20, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model