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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 2 at the 77

Indianapolis Colts 24 – Tennessee Titans 10

What Actually Happened

(7:05) (Punt formation) 2-R.Sanchez punts 45 yards to TEN 32, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.76 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 77, worth -4.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.72 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 34, worth -1.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP