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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 10 at the 34

Indianapolis Colts 14 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(:44) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +0.66 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.04 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 34, worth -0.98 EP
KICK +1.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 44, worth -1.59 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model