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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 6 at the 45

Tennessee Titans 7 – Indianapolis Colts 14

What Actually Happened

(2:33) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 33 yards to IND 12, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers. PENALTY on IND-97-A.Muhammad, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced at IND 12.

The Three Options

GO +0.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.47 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 45, worth -1.96 EP
KICK -0.60 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.40 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 12, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP