Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 19 at the 97

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(13:15) 6-M.Wile punts 65 yards to CHI 32, Center-47-K.McDermott. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 30 for -2 yards (50-E.Wilson; 40-K.Brothers). PENALTY on CHI-16-P.O'Donnell, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at CHI 30. Bench interfered with the official

The Three Options

GO -4.19 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +1.28 EP
75% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 97, worth -6.05 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (114 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model