Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 10 at the 63

Minnesota Vikings 10 – Chicago Bears 24

(3:39) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short right to 82-K.Rudolph (22-K.Toliver II) [98-B.Nichols].

The Three Options

GO -1.50 EP

What Happened

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +1.57 EP
69% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 63, worth -2.85 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.67 EP