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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 2 at the 24

Chicago Bears 21 – Minnesota Vikings 10

What Actually Happened

(4:29) 1-C.Parkey 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +1.87 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.07 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24, worth -0.67 EP
KICK +1.75 EP
What Happened
  • 87% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 34, worth -1.14 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model