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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 3 at the 68

Minnesota Vikings 10 – Chicago Bears 21

What Actually Happened

(6:59) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short right to 14-S.Diggs (38-A.Amos).

The Three Options

GO -1.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.52 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 68, worth -3.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.25 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 26, worth -1.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model