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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 7 at the 45

Chicago Bears 13 – Minnesota Vikings 3

What Actually Happened

(9:33) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 37 yards to MIN 8, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 15-B.Zylstra.

The Three Options

GO -0.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.40 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 45, worth -2.40 EP
KICK -0.82 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.86 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 12, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model