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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 6 at the 27

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Chicago Bears 13

What Actually Happened

(:58) 5-D.Bailey 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-6-M.Wile.

The Three Options

GO +0.93 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.36 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 27, worth -0.84 EP
KICK +1.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.21 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 37, worth -1.50 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model