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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 3 at the 81

Chicago Bears 13 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(2:04) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 45 yards to MIN 36, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 15-B.Zylstra.

The Three Options

GO -1.79 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.77 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 81, worth -4.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -2.14 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 38, worth -2.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP