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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Carolina Panthers
4th & 1 at the 43
Carolina Panthers 33 – New Orleans Saints 7
What Actually Happened
(5:18) (Shotgun) 38-T.Cadet left guard to NO 43 for no gain (24-V.Bell).
The Three Options
GO
+1.49 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.98 EP
- 32% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 43, worth -1.73 EP
KICK
-0.10 EP
- 49% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.19 EP
- 51% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.28 EP
PUNT
-0.13 EP
- New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 12, worth -0.13 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
