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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 13 at the 33

Carolina Panthers 30 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(8:22) 4-C.Catanzaro 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +0.17 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.54 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 33, worth -1.41 EP
KICK +0.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 43, worth -1.85 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model