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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 8 at the 70

New Orleans Saints 0 – Carolina Panthers 23

What Actually Happened

(6:26) 6-T.Morstead punts 45 yards to CAR 25, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.36 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.07 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 70, worth -3.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 28, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model