Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 76

Carolina Panthers 23 – New Orleans Saints 0

(10:44) 5-M.Palardy punts 56 yards to NO 20, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.43 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.49 EP
65% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 76, worth -4.54 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model