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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 4 at the 56

New Orleans Saints 0 – Carolina Panthers 23

What Actually Happened

(12:14) 6-T.Morstead punts 32 yards to CAR 24, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 12-D.Moore.

The Three Options

GO +0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.86 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 56, worth -3.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP