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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 4 at the 4

Carolina Panthers 20 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(:03) 4-C.Catanzaro 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +2.90 EP
  • 41% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.95 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 4, worth +0.12 EP
KICK +2.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21, worth -0.00 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model