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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 13 at the 78

New Orleans Saints 0 – Carolina Panthers 20

What Actually Happened

(1:40) 6-T.Morstead punts 48 yards to CAR 30, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-59-V.Biegel.

The Three Options

GO -2.02 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.79 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 78, worth -4.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 35, worth -1.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model