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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 6 at the 69

Dallas Cowboys 27 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13

What Actually Happened

(4:36) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 40 yards to TB 29, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 10-A.Humphries.

The Three Options

GO -1.37 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +0.80 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 69, worth -3.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 27, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model