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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 6 at the 7

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13 – Dallas Cowboys 27

What Actually Happened

(7:57) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston scrambles up the middle to DAL 2 for 5 yards (99-A.Woods).

The Three Options

GO +2.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.40 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 7, worth -0.15 EP
KICK +1.77 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21, worth -0.90 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model