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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 2 at the 2

Dallas Cowboys 17 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13

What Actually Happened

(3:44) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Maher 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +3.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.08 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 2, worth +0.43 EP
KICK +2.09 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.61 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.34 EP