4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 5 at the 77

Dallas Cowboys 17 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13

What Actually Happened

(13:31) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 41 yards to TB 36, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, downed by DAL-14-L.Lenoir.

The Three Options

GO -1.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.43 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 77, worth -4.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.66 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 34, worth -1.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model