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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 5 at the 41

Dallas Cowboys 14 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6

What Actually Happened

(1:48) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Maher 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.47 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 41, worth -1.70 EP
KICK +0.06 EP
What Happened
  • 54% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.28 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP