Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 5 at the 75

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6 – Dallas Cowboys 14

(5:48) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 45 yards to DAL 30, Center-89-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 11-C.Beasley.

The Three Options

GO -1.73 EP

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.23 EP
53% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 75, worth -4.31 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model