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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 2 at the 31

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(5:37) 9-C.Boswell 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +1.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.89 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 31, worth -1.68 EP
KICK +0.73 EP
What Happened
  • 77% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 41, worth -2.35 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP