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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 5 at the 58

Pittsburgh Steelers 28 – New Orleans Saints 24

What Actually Happened

(4:11) (Punt formation) 45-R.Nix left guard to PIT 46 for 4 yards (52-C.Robertson, 31-C.Banjo).

The Three Options

GO -0.54 EP
What Happened
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +1.90 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 58, worth -2.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 18, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model