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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 2 at the 67

New Orleans Saints 24 – Pittsburgh Steelers 28

What Actually Happened

(14:56) 6-T.Morstead punts 42 yards to PIT 25, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 10-R.Switzer.

The Three Options

GO -0.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.87 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 67, worth -3.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 25, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP