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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 16 at the 59

New Orleans Saints 14 – Pittsburgh Steelers 6

What Actually Happened

(6:51) 6-T.Morstead punts 56 yards to PIT 3, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.20 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.13 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 59, worth -3.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model