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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 7 at the 57

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(13:06) 4-J.Berry punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-57-K.Canaday, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.59 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 57, worth -3.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -1.19 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 17, worth -1.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model