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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 9 at the 12

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(14:10) 9-C.Boswell 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +1.83 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.04 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 12, worth -0.04 EP
KICK +1.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 22, worth -0.86 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model