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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 8 at the 18

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(7:11) 5-Z.Gonzalez 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +1.36 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.50 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 18, worth -0.25 EP
KICK +2.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.47 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 28, worth -0.85 EP
PUNT +0.37 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model