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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 13 at the 78

Arizona Cardinals 9 – Los Angeles Rams 31

What Actually Happened

(8:26) 2-A.Lee punts 55 yards to LA 23, Center-46-A.Brewer. 19-J.Natson to LA 49 for 26 yards (46-A.Brewer).

The Three Options

GO -2.76 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.57 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 78, worth -4.42 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 35, worth -1.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model