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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 2 at the 75

Arizona Cardinals 9 – Los Angeles Rams 24

What Actually Happened

(14:11) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 29-C.Edmonds. 29-C.Edmonds right end pushed ob at ARI 45 for 20 yards (11-K.Hodge).

The Three Options

GO -1.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.17 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 75, worth -4.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.35 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 32, worth -1.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model