Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 9 at the 74

Arizona Cardinals 9 – Los Angeles Rams 24

What Actually Happened

(4:15) 2-A.Lee punts 56 yards to LA 18, Center-46-A.Brewer. 19-J.Natson to LA 29 for 11 yards (29-C.Edmonds). PENALTY on LA-54-B.Hager, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at LA 18.

The Three Options

GO -2.32 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.76 EP
67% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 74, worth -4.29 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model