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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 3

Los Angeles Rams 21 – Arizona Cardinals 9

What Actually Happened

(5:41) 4-G.Zuerlein 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +2.82 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.80 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 3, worth +0.11 EP
KICK +1.80 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.84 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.02 EP