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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 9 at the 45

Arizona Cardinals 9 – Los Angeles Rams 21

What Actually Happened

(12:00) 2-A.Lee punts 34 yards to LA 11, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 19-J.Natson.

The Three Options

GO -0.53 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.72 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 45, worth -2.29 EP
KICK -0.65 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.78 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 12, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model