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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 7 at the 40

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(13:16) (Punt formation) 9-L.Cooke punts 29 yards to MIA 11, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.

The Three Options

GO -0.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.58 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 40, worth -2.34 EP
KICK -0.69 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.98 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model