Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 20 at the 63

Miami Dolphins 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 17

(5:21) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 50 yards to JAX 13, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 12-D.Westbrook.

The Three Options

GO -1.83 EP

24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.83 EP
76% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 63, worth -3.28 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model