Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 11 at the 67

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Miami Dolphins 7

(2:27) (Punt formation) 9-L.Cooke punts 42 yards to MIA 25, Center-45-M.Overton. 80-D.Amendola to MIA 28 for 3 yards (41-T.Herndon).

The Three Options

GO -1.89 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.22 EP
68% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 67, worth -3.80 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model