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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 11 at the 52

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(3:02) (Punt formation) 9-L.Cooke punts 39 yards to MIA 13, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.

The Three Options

GO -1.01 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.95 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 52, worth -2.71 EP
KICK -1.73 EP
  • 21% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 79% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.63 EP
PUNT -0.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 15, worth -0.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model