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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 5 at the 28

Miami Dolphins 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(6:11) (Field Goal formation) 7-J.Sanders 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +1.15 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.44 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 28, worth -1.03 EP
KICK +1.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 38, worth -1.78 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model