4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 3 at the 67

Miami Dolphins 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(10:24) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 54 yards to JAX 13, Center-92-J.Denney. 12-D.Westbrook pushed ob at JAX 23 for 10 yards (88-L.Carroo). PENALTY on JAX-43-Q.Meeks, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 7 yards, enforced at JAX 14.

The Three Options

GO -0.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +2.16 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 67, worth -3.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.10 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 25, worth -1.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP