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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 4 at the 65

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Houston Texans 3

What Actually Happened

(13:05) 1-C.Johnston punts 48 yards to HOU 17, Center-45-R.Lovato. 14-D.Carter to HOU 25 for 8 yards (47-N.Gerry).

The Three Options

GO -0.67 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.33 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 65, worth -3.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.71 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 23, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model