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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 2 at the 37

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(6:42) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass short right to 43-D.Sproles for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +1.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.86 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 37, worth -1.48 EP
KICK +0.59 EP
  • 60% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.47 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 46, worth -2.27 EP
PUNT +0.37 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model