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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 3 at the 48

Philadelphia Eagles 29 – Houston Texans 23

What Actually Happened

(4:17) 1-C.Johnston punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-45-R.Lovato, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.00 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 48, worth -2.04 EP
KICK -0.74 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.06 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 14, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP