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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 2 at the 50

Houston Texans 16 – Philadelphia Eagles 16

What Actually Happened

(2:38) 8-T.Daniel punts 33 yards to PHI 17, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.79 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 50, worth -2.84 EP
KICK -1.55 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.84 EP
PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 14, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.27 EP