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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 5 at the 41

Houston Texans 16 – Philadelphia Eagles 13

What Actually Happened

(9:32) 8-T.Daniel punts 29 yards to PHI 12, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 43-D.Sproles.

The Three Options

GO +0.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.61 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 41, worth -2.17 EP
KICK -0.53 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.86 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 12, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EP