4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 71

Houston Texans 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(11:24) 8-T.Daniel punts 51 yards to PHI 20, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-58-P.Kalambayi. PENALTY on PHI-41-D.Bausby, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 20.

The Three Options

GO -1.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.51 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 71, worth -4.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.66 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 29, worth -1.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model